The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is ‘near-normal’ — however there’s a wild card

A satellite view of a a storm swirling over an ocean
Storm Mawar on Might 24th, 2023. | Picture: NASA Earth Observatory picture by Allison Nussbaum

After a number of years of heightened threat, the Atlantic hurricane season is shaping as much as look fairly common for 2023. That’s because of an unusually long-lasting climate sample known as La Niña lastly ending, with its counterpart, El Niño, anticipated to quickly develop. The caveat is that there’s extra uncertainty on this yr’s seasonal forecast than regular due to unusually heat temperatures within the Atlantic.

These components are inclined to have reverse results on hurricane season. El Niño usually ushers in milder storms within the Atlantic. However hotter waters present extra gasoline for tropical storms to strengthen. So we’ll have to attend and see how these competing forces affect this yr’s season.

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