Wall St analyst Laura Martin on the destiny of Netflix, breaking apart Google, EU regulation, and a decade of more cash for Hollywood

The rise of streaming video platforms like Netflix and Amazon Prime has upended conventional energy balances in Hollywood and is reorganizing the best way we devour movies and TV collection as customers.

Following her discuss on the current Banff World Media Competition in Canada, I interviewed Laura Martin, the senior analyst masking leisure and web shares at main funding financial institution Needham & Firm, to type out how the items are transferring on this chess sport between content material creators, streaming providers, customers, and authorities regulators.

We focus on why Netflix continues to be vulnerable to a downfall, the impact of EU content material quotas, why Martin thinks regulators ought to break up Google, and why video streaming and sport streaming are prone to merge into the identical subscription merchandise.

Right here is the transcript of our dialogue, edited for size and readability:

Eric Peckham: There’s an optimistic case that the rise of on-line video streaming is a win for each customers and content material creators as a result of it creates an unlimited panorama of content material platforms. Onstage in Banff, you argued that the variety of content material platforms (and thus the variety of content material consumers) will actually shrink. Why do you see it going that route?

Laura Martin: There are 4,000 video apps on the Roku platform at present (and equally on Samsung and on Amazon Fireplace). What you’ll see is a consolidation within the trade as we get massive gamers just like the Walt Disney Firm, AT&T, and Apple coming into the DTC enterprise with massive, deep pockets. Though we’ve got extra consumers of content material at present, it’s driving costs up.

It’s possible that the large gamers are simply battling out between themselves, placing smaller gamers out of enterprise. Over a 10-year time-frame, I anticipate simply three or 4 winners, and that can carry extra self-discipline again into the monetary facets of the enterprise.

Peckham: What is going to separate the winners from the losers right here?

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